It’s been nearly two years since Russia occupied Ukraine; if there was an international backlash then, the now domestic turmoil has definitely turned it twofold. There looks to be a quaint coup d’etat going on in Russia, with some of Vladimir Putin’s most trusted associates staking their chances in the power throws of a politically devastated nation.
What has been clear since 2000, Putin has held a firm grasp on Russian politics. Be it the sudden disappearances of newspaper critics, rivaling candidates, or government officials, Putin’s rule has been relatively unchallenged within the past 23 years. That is, until one of his very own turned against him.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, though no government official, has curried favor with President Putin and his friends in decades of tight-knit networking. With covert ownership of a paramilitary organization known as the Wagner Group, Prigozhin had just the right connections to stage a coup. Wagner insurrectionists staged a march on Moscow that was soon dispersed following a fast deal, but Putin vows revenge. Prigozhin continues with his mercenary group backings and political ties as a somewhat untouched man, and Ukrainian counter-offenses are already on the rise with anti-war, Russian nationalists aiding their forces. The Belarusian president has even been tied to discussions with Prigozhin that made him consider military deals in Russia to ex-con mercenaries that’d clear their names in exchange for service. The head of the Wagner Group, a known crime boss, was also offered sanctity in his calling off the march.
The fact is, Putin has shown that he can bleed, and no less his very own people made it so. Allies like Kazakhstan and Iran have bid off Russian turmoil as another internal struggle, and there may be some thicker wedges growing in between allied, non-NATO countries. There have even been records of emergency meetings with befriended countries on the topic of national security and nuclear arsenals that call into question the viability of Russia– a question if the leadership will hold up, or if civil war will engulf the state. In either case, the global stage will see a massive change in Asian and Eastern European countries.
On account of Russian leadership’s torn attention on domestic and international diplomacy, the economic gains have been all eaten up. Any oil gains proved inconsequential as the trading market loses 4% on Russian oil prices; thereby, Russian profits are tanking but global demand for energy is still on its independent rise.
Within the 36 hours that civil war was a possibility, Russia has been set on the edge of its seat, and with it all its enemies and allies. We may only replace President Putin with another dictator, the country may devolve into civil war, or the economic flow across seas could be wholly erased. Whatever the case, what’s going on in Russia is something to sit and watch.
Hodge, Nathan. “Belarus leader Lukashenko’s purported mediation in Kremlin crisis stretches credibility to the limit.” CNN, 26 June 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/25/europe/putin-belarus-lukashenko-analysis-intl/index.html. Accessed 25 June 2023.
He, Laura. “Oil price gains evaporate after short-lived Wagner insurrection in Russia.” CNN, 26 June 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/investing/global-markets-russia-wagner-intl-hnk/index.html. Accessed 25 June 2023.
Walsh, Nick Paton. “Bizarre and chaotic 36 hours in Russia feels like the beginning of the end for Putin.” CNN, 25 June 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/25/europe/putin-russia-analysis-intl/index.html. Accessed 25 June 2023.
Yeung, Jessie. “Russia pulls back from brink of crisis after deal reached to end Wagner insurrection.” CNN, 25 June 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/25/europe/russia-putin-wagner-prigozhin-crisis-aftermath-intl-hnk/index.html. Accessed 25 June 2023
