Ukraine-Russia Crisis: Why Does it Mean Full-on War?

Russia recently made a politically bombastic move to invade Ukraine and other Eastern-bloc European nations to liberate the Ukraine separatist movement. Although Russia is the only state recognizing the independence of the off-shooting Ukrainian sovereignty, the invasion is made out as the culmination of a Russian-Ukrainian alliance that acknowledges the rebelling states of Donetsk and Luhansk which have been at odds with their home country since 2014.

The Rebel leaders arranged a popular vote in 2014 bidding to incorporate their republics into Moscow, however, Russia left their motion on the table to leverage some power over Ukraine while maiming their national stability to prevent them from joining NATO. Diplomatic recourse was soon taken as the Minsk Accords were ordained calling on a ceasefire and political settlement in 2015.

The Minsk Accords recognized the independent states and partitioned their power in choosing their own judges, monitoring private elections, and organizing their own police force free of any Ukrainian influence. Yet Putin attempting to divide the territories from Ukraine is an active violation of the peace accords- and that wrong was bound to inflame the diplomatic discussions of their sudden insurrection.

The Russian invasion partially extends to other bordering countries such as Romania and Moldova as integral trading territories and national boundaries have fallen into the idle hands of the Russian government. The Serpent Islands of Romania that filter out into the Black Sea have been overtaken in a quick, rapid operation leaving a few Ukrainian dispatches dead with a focus on moderating Romania’s access to the Black Sea for naval and commercial purposes.

Moldova was originally Romanian territory, but Russian influence that appealed to their dominant nationalism (among other economic and conflict factors) pushed them to split from the nation and were recognized as an independent nation just a couple of decades ago. With violation of Ukrainian and Romanian boundaries, the idea of expanding Moldova into Romania to add up to Russia’s annexed territory is feasible.

On top of Ukraine losing a quarter of its size, Russia also wrestled over control of Chernobyl which is in deep proximity with the borders of the seceding republics. Russia took a more docile response to the resistance they encountered at the lingering facilities through hostage-keeping- a systemic threat to the essential caution needed to maintain the sensitive, nuclear operations still conducted in that area. Restricting the employees from being able to do their job risks the general safety and radioactive sterility of the zone which threatens another Chernobyl incident no different than the one experienced just 30 years ago.

The most direct transgression was Russia’s bombardment of its borders and Ukraine’s capital Kyiv where Russian forces are making moves to lock in. The response to the absurdity and swiftness of Russia’s invasion has fallen on financial sanctions that just bar trade and access in portions of the Russian economy, yet the Russian stock market leveled out at a uniform decrease in their national economic stability. Ukraine is simply left to bear the brunt of the Russian army, with no public discussion of international intervention from fellow NATO countries. Just observing how diplomatically respectful all countries have been with the US in the front, a sudden turn in homeland resistance or a spontaneous dip in military assimilation is unlikely. War has already begun, and it is unlikely to end prettily.

Sources:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/europe/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-intl/index.html

https://time.com/6149966/ukraine-separatist-regions/

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/why-does-russia-want-invade-ukraine-ask-putin-ncna1288996