The 2022 midterms are over, and Democrats managed to defy history and polling by not taking a “shellacking” like the party in power usually does after a sitting president’s first midterm. Many issues need to be addressed in society. Both political parties seek ways to appeal to voters and put their best candidates at the forefront in the 2024 presidential election. There are a few likely and emerging options for both Democrats and Republicans. Who knows what news could be brewing in a few years, considering the commotion and uproar after the denial of the 2020 election, the attack on the Capitol, and the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Let’s look at options for both sides and their likelihood of being nominated by their respective parties.
First, a few well-known politicians: Bernie Sanders and Mike Pence. Sanders is an experienced senator and politician who could garner lots of support. However, despite being a worthy candidate, Sanders may be unpopular among moderate voters as he may be seen as too similar to Joe Biden (because of his age), who is already quite unpopular. Furthermore, Sanders would be giving up a crucial Senate seat in Vermont, so Biden didn’t choose Sanders to be part of his cabinet. Another candidate, this time on the Republican side, is none-other than former vice president Mike Pence. Pence has recently been quite outspoken against Trump after the backlash against the former vice president grew after the Capitol attack where he was tasked to certify Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. The chant “Hang Mike Pence!” was uttered during the Capitol attack, and Trump himself expressed support for his supporters. If Pence decides to run, he will find it difficult to gather support as he is now quite unpopular among Trump supporters and doesn’t appeal to Democrats much. Still, he could gain ground among moderates and lean Democrats or Republicans. However, he might face more of a psychological issue when running against his former boss for president, as Trump and Pence were quite good friends until the Capitol attack. There are much more likely and convenient candidates than these two, however.
Some more likely possible candidates for a 2024 run include Vice President Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Kamala Harris is the next potential candidate because she is next in line for the presidency. She could appeal to minorities because she is an Asian-American woman Vice President. However, she is widely unpopular—especially among conservatives—and has even lower approval ratings than Biden. One outspoken enemy of Trump that could run for president is Liz Cheney. As the Republican Party slowly separates itself from Trump, Cheney’s condemning of Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol has gained praise and admiration. Cheney could appeal more towards moderates, non-Trump Republicans, and even Democrats because she openly calls for the censorship of Trump’s election fraud lies. An emerging figure for the Democrats, however, is Pete Buttigieg. He experienced wild success during the 2020 presidential primaries, performing well in the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada state primaries. He appeals more to a younger audience since he is only forty years old and a member of the LGBTQ community. However, he is already part of President Biden’s cabinet, so he is unlikely to consider a presidential run. He hasn’t made any comments about running again, so it will likely be known if he is running depending on whether or not Biden chooses to run for reelection.
Moving on to the more likely candidates for 2020: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Governor of Florida, DeSantis is gaining in popularity among Republicans that want to distance themselves from Trump but remain conservative. He easily won reelection in the former swing state of Florida during the 2022 midterms, winning by nearly twenty percentage points. However, if he runs for president, he will give up his seat as Governor, possibly making way for a more competitive race. DeSantis may face some opposition from Donald Trump, which could cause some conflict between members of the Republican Party. However, the possibility for 2024 is a rematch between Biden and Trump. Joe Biden and Democrats defied history at the midterms by not losing by a large margin and even gaining a Senate seat. While Biden has a robust agenda that helped him get voted into office in the first place, he will find it much harder to pass any legislation because Democrats no longer have control of both houses of Congress. This may cause voters frustration and doubt whether Biden is an effective President considering his age (80 now), causing his approval ratings to drop even further.
Additionally, some unpopular conflicts have occurred during Biden’s first two years in office that might cause voters to rethink their decisions: pulling out of Afghanistan, his response to COVID-19 and vaccine mandates, inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, etc. Biden will announce his decision on whether to run for president again early this year. Finally, there is the one and only former President Donald Trump. He has remained active in the news despite no longer being president anymore. He still has a large, albeit dwindling, fanbase of supporters who rally behind him and whom he talks to through social media. However, he may face challenges from leaders in the Republican Party who no longer want to stand by him and his claims of election fraud. Additionally, most of the candidates that he endorsed during the 2022 midterms lost (e.g., Herschel Walker, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, etc.), showing that voters don’t want more of Trump’s ideologies reflected in government. Considering his age (76) and how voters react to Biden’s old age, he may not be popular among people who want a younger President.
The 2024 presidential election is far away, but both major political parties must now get to work since the midterms are over. If Democrats want to retain the White House and Republicans want to take it, both parties must put their best candidates forward. They will need to unify members of their party for the common goal of winning the presidency and getting things on their party platform passed. There are many candidates to choose from, some more unpopular than others, but some with more potential. It is only a matter of time to see who will prevail.
Works Cited
Cillizza, Chris. “The simple reason why Ron DeSantis should run for president in 2024.” CNN, 15 November 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/ron-desantis-president-2024-donald-trump/index.html.
Collinson, Stephen. “Why voters don’t want Biden or Trump but might get them anyway in 2024.” CNN, 15 December 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/15/politics/biden-trump-2024-analysis/index.html.
Grayer, Annie. “Liz Cheney says she will not remain a Republican if Donald Trump is GOP nominee in 2024.” CNN, 25 September 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/24/politics/liz-cheney-republican-party-donald-trump-2024/index.html.
Kilgore, Ed. “Will Joe Biden Dodge a Primary Challenge in 2024?” New York Magazine, 15 December 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/12/will-joe-biden-dodge-a-primary-challenge-in-2024.html.
Olander, Olivia. “Pence giving 2024 run ‘prayerful consideration.’” POLITICO, 14 November 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/pence-2024-run-prayerful-consideration-00066877.
